U.S.-Iran war: The futile debacle now engulfing the Middle East

Key Takeaways

Back in 2011, Donald Trump claimed: “Our president [Barack Obama] will start a war with Iran because he has absolutely no ability to negotiate. He’s weak and ineffective.” For years, he accused Obama of planning to attack Iran just to win reelection, calling it desperate and a weak leadership.

Then, on February 28, 2026, Donald Trump, wearing a trucker hat and posting a video on Truth Social, announced what he called “major combat operations” against Iran – without explanation, a coalition of allied countries, any clear strategy, or stated endgame.

The United States and Israel launched a coordinated attack on Iran, reportedly killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayyed Ali Khamenei along with several members of his family – including his daughter, grandchild, and senior officials. That same day, a missile struck a girls’ school in Minab, killing 170 people, mostly young girls.

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Multiple independent investigations later suggested the strike was likely carried out by U.S. forces based on outdated intelligence, although Trump blamed Iran without providing evidence.

U.S.-Iran war: Escalation without control

Independent of the collateral damage, the ongoing war is driving casualties higher every day. Around two thousand people have been killed across the Middle East since February 28. The heaviest losses are in Iran, with over 1,444 killed and 18,551 injured.

In retaliation, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz – a vital route carrying roughly 20% of the world’s oil – sending prices above $100 per barrel.

Iran retaliated and escalated the conflict by striking U.S. military bases and U.S. corporations across the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan, not to mention Israel itself.

ALSO READ: Three days at Ayatollah Khamenei’s funeral changed everything I thought I knew about Iran

In response, Hezbollah resumed hostile activities against Israel by aggressively launching attacks and entering the conflict.

As a result, the Middle East is now engulfed in a senseless war.

A conflict without a clear justification

Until now, Trump has failed to clearly explain why the U.S. went to war. First, he claimed Iran was planning an imminent attack on U.S. assets. The Pentagon then contradicted this directly, stating no such threat had been identified. Then Marco Rubio offered a different story, admitting the U.S. knew Israel was preparing to strike Iran, expected retaliation, and chose to strike first.   

More recently, Joe Kent, director of the National Counterterrorism Center, resigned from his position in protest of the war in Iran explaining: “I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.”

Trump drew further backlash after suggesting U.S. efforts to protect the Strait of Hormuz were unnecessary, saying “maybe we shouldn’t be there at all” because America has sufficient domestic oil. 

Taken together, these contradictions point to a superpower entering a war it has not clearly justified and with no visible plan to end. 

According to a recent CNN poll, 59% of Americans oppose this war, while 60% believe Trump has no clear strategy. The financial cost so far has already reached $16.5 billion in just the first two weeks!

Strategic miscalculation in Tehran

Despite security briefings indicating the contrary, Trump appeared to assume that removing Iran’s leadership would collapse the system.  Instead, the Iranian theocracy held firm.

Within days of Ali Khamenei’s reported assassination, his 56-year-old son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was appointed the new supreme leader. Also wounded in the very first strike, he assumed power with a clear message from Tehran: defiance. 

Rather than destabilizing Iran, the U.S. has been instrumental in welcoming a new Iranian administration even more radical than the previous leadership. 

ALSO READ: ‘I prayed the bombs would not reach us’: A young Iranian speaks about life and death under U.S.-Israeli strikes

In his first speech, Mojtaba Khamenei vowed to avenge the blood of Iranians, warned U.S. bases would be targets unless shut down immediately, and declared the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed.

In doing so, the conflict escalated further — pushing U.S.-Iran relations to the brink and leaving the path to de-escalation increasingly more difficult and uncertain. 

Intelligence ignored, reality unfolds

While Trump promised a fast and decisive war, prior intelligence suggested otherwise. A National Intelligence Council assessment reportedly concluded that neither limited strikes nor full-scale military action would result in regime change, even if leadership figures were eliminated. 

Reports also revealed that without ground control of Hormuz-adjacent territory, securing the strait would be nearly impossible

Iran’s war of attrition

Trump said he wanted to “clean out everything” and choose Iran’s next leader himself. Instead, he has helped usher in a younger, more hardline figure with even deeper ties to the Revolutionary Guards. In a very short time, predictably, Iran’s strategy for winning this conflict through attrition became clear and straightforward:    

a) Leverage the world’s dependence on Gulf oil by controlling the Strait of Hormuz and remain the de facto gatekeeper for the safe passage of all vessels;

b) Target the robust network of U.S. military bases in the region along with U.S. corporations who’ve established businesses in the Middle East such as OpenAI, Microsoft, Oracle, IBM, Amazon & Google; 

c) Similar to ISIS, put innocent Americans in harm’s way by appealing to every terrorist cell in the world who is sympathetic to Iran and their theology to rise up and join their crusade.

And all the while the Middle East is mired in conflict, Putin is busy cashing in. Since the war began, Russia has pulled in almost $7 billion in additional fossil fuel revenue. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz choked off Gulf oil, opening the door for Russian exports to fill the gap. Now, Russia is reportedly generating an extra $589 million per day, a 14% increase from February averages.

And Trump, having previously criticized countries for buying Russian oil, eased the sanctions for his bully-buddy Putin. Suddenly, nations can now buy Russian oil again.

ALSO READ: The real consequences of war: a doctor’s perspective from the front lines

Instead of pressing Moscow on the deadly war in Ukraine, Trump attacked Iran and extended Putin a lifeline. Not one to overlook any opportunity, Putin is now allegedly helping Iran by sharing intelligence about U.S. assets in the region.

A superpower without direction

Similarly, since the war started, Iran has continued exporting at least 11.7 million barrels of crude oil to China through the Strait of Hormuz. Beijing now imports about 1.25 million barrels per day, providing Tehran with critical revenue. There are growing concerns that these funds are being redirected into military operations. As the IRGC now considers letting tankers pass only if the oil is paid for in Chinese yuan, Washington continues to pay for the war.

Initially, Trump suggested escorting commercial ships safely through the Strait, but that has yet to materialize. The Strait is still closed and oil prices keep rising. Meanwhile, Trump has publicly urged oil-tanker ship owners to “show some guts” – a remark that has drawn shameless criticism given his own past avoidance of military service.

And in typical bully fashion, Trump is now demanding allies, including China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the U.K. – to deploy warships to secure the Strait of Hormuz. In a blackmailing statement, Trump threatened that failure to do so would “be very bad for the future of NATO”, in his interview with the Financial Times.

There is no exit for the U.S.-Iran war, and no end game

Now three weeks into the war, Trump has provided no sign of a clear exit. And Tehran has not budged. The Iranian government remains intact, and the IRGC continues to fight. Inside the White House, Trump’s advisers urge him to look for an exit, but analysts expect that Trump may instead declare a symbolic victory and withdraw – suggesting that deterrence has been restored.

If that happens, it will not mark the end of a successful campaign, but rather the abandonment of a war without a plan.

🚨 TRUMP SAYS US NEARING DECISION ON HOW TO END CONFLICT WITH IRAN WASHINGTON, UNITED STATES – Iranian decision-makers are operating under a narrower set of options than they had before the conflict intensified. Publicly describing Iran as a "mess" suggests the White House believes sustained pressure has shifted the balance enough to demand concessions rather than negotiate from equal footing. That creates a difficult calculation for Tehran because accepting major restrictions risks appearing weak, while refusing them increases the chance of further military action. The language coming from Washington also suggests confidence that economic and security costs remain manageable compared with the perceived risk of allowing Iran to rebuild strategic capabilities. Whether that confidence is justified depends on Iran’s remaining capacity to impose costs indirectly through regional networks and disruption of trade routes. Writer: Meera

— The Content Factory (@tcf_updates) October 7, 2026